The most powerful voices in Japan’s political world, who have been championing the so-called Casino Bill, have suffered reverses that seem to have dimmed the prospects for passage of the legislation.
Last November, Hirokazu Nakaima, who favored bringing integrated resorts to his southwestern prefecture of Okinawa, was defeated in gubernatorial elections by Takeshi Onaga, who opposes the idea. Governor Onaga finally made his opposition unequivocal as recently as July 17 when he told journalists, “Casinos are not suitable for the soil of Okinawa.”
A much heavier blow to the casino project was delivered exactly two months earlier on May 17 as Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto suffered a humiliating defeat when his plan to merge Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City was rejected in a popular referendum. Hashimoto says that he will retire from politics later this year.
Among Japanese local government leaders there has been no one as outspoken and aggressive about the need for integrated resorts than Toru Hashimoto. He advocates using a manmade island in Osaka Bay called Yumeshima as a site for a major integrated resort. This land had originally been reclaimed as part of Osaka’s failed bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympics, and Hashimoto believes the introduction of casinos could create an engine for local economic revival. He even declared that the project would create between 70,000 and 240,000 jobs, and that the casino developers might be contracted to fund a new train line serving the island.
Toru Hashimoto’s political defeat in the Osaka unification referendum also gave a black eye to the Yumeshima casino development project, though it is not completely off the table. In early June, an annual research budget from the city and prefectural governments that had been proposed at the 114 million yen level (US$927,000) was slashed to only 30 million yen (US$244,000) at the insistence of rival political parties.
This research budget is to be used to compile a feasibility study and to lay the groundwork for more specific development plans.
While Toru Hashimoto and his ally Osaka Governor Ichiro Matsui remain committed to the Yumeshima integrated resort plan, their waning political influence is having a direct impact on its prospects.
But the picture at the local government level is not entirely grim. As Okinawa pulls itself out of the running and Osaka’s bid stumbles, Yokohama city has emerged as the clear frontrunner.
Yokohama remains keen on building an integrated resort in its Minato Mirai district, which it estimates could bring in annual revenues at the 410 billion yen level (US$3.3 billion) and create employment opportunities for about 40,000 local residents.
None of the local projects will become possible unless the national government passes the enabling legislation, known popularly as the Casino Bill.
The bill was reintroduced to the National Diet on April 28, and since the ordinary Diet session has been greatly extended until September 27, there ought to be more than enough time for it to be debated and scheduled for a vote.
CIMB Securities analysts in a recent note said they were told by a senior source that the bill has a more than 70 percent chance of approval in this session. But they added that they wouldn’t be surprised if there were further delays.
At the national level the main champion of the Casino Bill has run into political trouble. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who views integrated resorts as useful to stimulate national economic growth, is watching his own popularity tumble after he forced deeply unpopular security legislation through the House of Representatives.
Like the security legislation, the Casino Bill is also unpopular with the general public. A recent survey by the Tokyo Shimbun found 65 percent opposing the bill against only 30 percent in support. About two-thirds of the Japanese public—along with the ruling coalition Komeito Party—fear that domestic casinos will lead to higher rates of gambling addiction and crime, and will also be a bad cultural influence on Japanese children.
In spite of his positive stance towards integrated resorts, there is no doubt that the security legislation is a higher priority for Shinzo Abe, as is the survival of his suddenly-faltering administration.
As his popularity began to plummet, Prime Minister Abe quickly reversed himself on plans to build a highly expensive national stadium for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. With his security legislation being so unpopular with the public, the prime minister seems to have calculated that it would be unwise to try to push through a separate unpopular policy.
From this point of view, it would seem that passage of the Casino Bill has also become endangered. With most of the Japanese skeptical about the social impact of hosting casinos, Prime Minister Abe may very well decide that he cannot afford to spend any of his rapidly dwindling political capital on passing this bill.
The outcome remains uncertain, but the odds seem to be growing that Japan’s ruling coalition will quietly bury the Casino Bill for this Diet session and perhaps try again in the future.
“Given the expected lengthy discussion period for the follow-on Implementation IR bill, tender and construction processes, our early best-case scenario is for the Japanese casinos to begin operations well after the 2020 Japan Olympics, possibly 2022,” CIMB analysts Michael Ting and Jensen Poon said.
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