Macau chief executive set to still get his way

Published in: Latest Intelligence Macau chief executive set to still get his way
What matters is who will replace Fernando Chui in the run up to the expiry of the casino operators’ gaming concessions, not who is in the legislature
By prof. Jorge Godinho

 
Do not think of losing much sleep over this weekend’s elections for Macau’s Legislative Assembly.
The center of gravity of the political system in Macau, which has been described as super-presidential, is firmly the chief executive. The assembly on paper has very important exclusive legislative powers but in reality it has never rejected a proposal sent by the government and likely never will. 
 
All pieces of legislation relating to gaming law that have been passed by the Assembly actually originated in bills from the government and were either not touched or only very slightly amended by the assembly, including the 2001 law on gaming concessions, the 2004 law on gaming credit, the 2006 law on money laundering, the 2011 smoking restrictions and the 2012 law regulating entry into gaming venues, problem gambling and other matters.
In the last two cases there was stiff resistance to some aspects of the bills, but the composition of the assembly makes things easy for the government. Of a total 33 members, only 14 are elected directly, while 12 are representatives of associations of various economic and social sectors who are always chosen without election and seven members are directly appointed by the chief executive. 
In the current assembly there are at least five members with direct links to the gaming industry and they can ensure continuity and voice their concerns.
The 2013 elections cannot and will not bring about major changes in the nature of political debate in Macau. This year, housing issues and the booming property market are the top priority in the political platforms of most of the competing candidate lists, with many demanding more public housing and cooling measures such as controls on rent hikes.
It is indeed likely that construction will continue at a good pace and urban congestion and pollution will surely worsen in the coming years. Cotai will quickly become a quite crowded area. Macau has the highest population density in the world and seems keen to expand its lead.
The gaming industry is the backbone of the economy of Macau and therefore most political platforms do not question it openly, although various platforms stress the need to deal with the social fallout of excessive levels of gambling. 
Some specific gaming issues have made their way into public debate. The smoking ban is an issue that will not go away. The partial smoking ban in casinos that came into force in January 2013, covering 50 percent of casino floor space, is being questioned by Angela Leong of SJM Holdings who has demanded it be turned into a complete smoking ban. It is not likely that this will happen rapidly, although it may at some point.
Recent months have seen the questioning of the legality of the government’s issuance of gaming subconcessions some years ago to Las Vegas Sands, MGM China and Melco Crown Entertainment. This led to the release of the respective contracts to the public; questions of legality and transparency, typically voiced by the pan-democratic camp, will continue to be raised. The coming years should see a clarification of the future of the system of concessions, the most important issue facing the industry.
The bottom line is that the Legislative Assembly effectively has very little power and is fully dominated by the chief executive, notwithstanding the highly visible but powerless pro-democracy camp. In addition, the electoral system is designed to ensure that no single candidate list can gain many seats. This has created incentives for the formal subdivision of platforms, a somewhat risky strategy that may or may not pay off. 
To state the obvious, this is not a democratic multi-party system. What really matters is what will take place in 2019 when a new chief executive is chosen, not this vote in 2013, nor 2014 when Fernando Chui’s first term expires and he is granted another.
Professor Jorge Godinho is an AGB Advisor and author of numerous titles on the Macau legal system and gaming legislation  

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