“Best case” scenario for Japan casino bill passage is late 2015

The absolute “best-case” scenario for the passage of Japan’s long-delayed framework legislation to open up its casino market is late 2015, making it a real possibility Taiwan will beat its neighbour to open the first integrated resort.
Speaking at the Macau Gaming Show, Dr Kazuaki Sasaki, assistant professor at the Nihon College of Economics in Japan, said the “absolute best case” scenario would be for a revised casino bill to be presented before the next extraordinary session of Japan’s Diet this time next year.
Sasaki is one of the few researchers specializing in the gaming industry in Japan and is Director of Gambling*Gaming Academy in Japan.
The framework legislation was designed to lay the groundwork for what is expected to become the world’s third-largest gambling market. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has backed the bill as part of his efforts to boost tourism arrivals. However, his strength in parliament and therefore his ability to push the bill past opponents concerned about problem gambling and organized crime, was hit by the resignation of two cabinet ministers over an unrelated corruption scandal.
In Taiwan however, the political momentum remains in tact as long as gambling is restricted to outlying islands.
Dr Day-Yang Liu, director at the Center for the Study of Lottery and Commercial Gaming at the National Taiwan Institute of Science and Technology said he was optimistic the gaming bill, now on its second reading, could be passed by June of 2015.
However, he warned that the market is likely to be strictly regulated and will be more likely to resemble the situation in Singapore than Nevada. There will be a limited number of licenses and a strong emphasis on non-gaming facilities.
“It will not be like Macau,” he said, but nevertheless the introduction of casinos will “help the outer islands dramatically to boost tourism and their economies.”
Dr Liu also said that at present in Taiwan there are no specific proposals outlawing locals from casinos.
Any IRs in Taiwan will be restricted to three islands -- Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu -- and residents will need to approve the proposal through a referendum.
Matsu held a referendum in 2012, which was passed making it the only place currently eligible for an IR in the country. Penghu residents however rejected a proposal about five years ago. Locals there are expected to vote for a new county governor on November 29th, which may give new momentum to the casino debate, he said.
However, Kinmen may be a tougher sell as the island gets a significant revenue stream from the sale of its highly popular local liquor, meaning there is far less pressure on the local economy.
Experts on the panel all agreed that should bills legalizing casinos finally be passed there is tremendous unmet demand. Japan may benefit from neighbouring South Korea, where locals are banned from gambling apart from in one property. Taiwan would likely see increased visitation from mainland China.