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China to account for 20% of global tourism market by 2030

China is likely to account for 20 percent of the global tourism market by 2030, with the market splitting into three distinct segments, the China Outbound Tourism Institute (Cotri) estimates.

Professor Wolfgang Arlt, founder and director of Cotri, estimates that there will be 400 million Mainland border crossings by that time, up from a projected 180 million for 2019.

The travel and spending preferences of China’s rapidly growing outbound tourism market has major implications for the region’s gaming industry and trends are closely watched to tailor product offerings.

In a presentation at the Mekong Gaming Summit, Arlt said that the market has three segments with the lower spending package tourist declining in importance. In 2017, package tourists made up 44 percent of the China market, but that is likely to fall to 30 percent by 2022.

On the other hand, customised travel groups, who have a larger say over their own itineraries and tend to spend more are likely to increase to 35 percent from just 14 percent in 2017. 

In a survey of several hundred tour operators in China in Spring 2019, “Customised” was named as the main Trend Term for outbound tourism development. 

Free independent travellers are forecast to drop to 35 percent from 42 percent, Arlt said.

These travellers are likely to demand higher quality and value for money. 

In terms of market, Hong Kong and Macau are still the top choice for Mainland visitors, although Cambodia is growing fast and rose into the top 15 tourism destinations for the first time in 2018. 

Its share of the total China market rose to 1.45 percent in 2018, up from 1.25 percent the prior year.


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