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Guangdong, Fujian recovery bodes well for Macau: Bernstein

The Chinese provinces of Guangdong and Fujian are recovering faster than many other provinces in Mainland China, which should bode well for Macau’s gaming industry, Bernstein Research said.

The firm has been tracking subway usage in 24 Chinese cities over the past nine weeks to measure the extent of the pickup in economic activity post the Covid-19 shutdowns. 

The recovery in Fujian and Guangdong has been among the fastest, it found. Guangdong alone accounts for 25 percent of Macau’s gross gambling revenue, the report said. 

“The profile of recovery in these Southeastern provinces suggests that the depth and duration of consumer lockdown has been more limited than most of the country and this bodes well for a return to normal consumption,” it said.

Bernstein pointed to the reopening of the luxury Hermes store in Guangzhou on April 11th, which reported $2.7 million of sales on that day alone. 

Signals from the restaurant channel paint a similar picture with Guangdong and Fujian leading the re-opening. On March 16th, Bernstein surveyed 240 restaurants across the country and 93 percent of outlets in Guangdong and Fujian had re-opened compared to only 63 percent nationally. 

That said, the lifting of quarantine restrictions and relaxation of the individual visit scheme will be key to a recovery in Macau. Even though the territory has not had any new imported cases for 31 days, Guangdong still maintains a 14-day mandatory quarantine on anyone returning into China.


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