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Macau GGR close to MOP11 billion from July 1 to 19: analysts

Analysts put Macau’s table-only gross gaming revenue at close to MOP11 billion ($1.3 billion) from July 1 to July 19.

According to Sterne Agee, including slot assumptions, the July GGR run was MOP10.8 billion from July 1 to July 19, which indicates a drop of 35 percent year-over-year monthly result, or MOP18.4b. Sterne Agee’s July GGR growth forecast range of negative 30 percent and negative 34 percent YoY remains unchanged.

Table GGR was down nearly 4 percent week-on-week, despite the opening of Galaxy’s Macau’s new premium mass offering, the “Horizon” on July 10 as well as more benign weather - the previous week had typhoons. Horizon added 19 gaming tables in 3 private salons and 143 slots, all of which require invitation for play, wrote Sterne Agee analyst David Bain.

“Galaxy Macau Phase II impact muted to date – could harm investor sentiment ahead of new supply,” said Bain.

“Galaxy’s Macau’s $2.5b expansion is off to a slow start, not boosting results beyond Macau’s month-over-month GGR averages. While it was not necessarily forecasted to do so, there was certainly investor “hope” for more of an impact,” he said.

According to Bernstein Research’s industry channel check, Macau GGR for the month through July 19 was MOP 11.2 billion. The average daily revenue last week was MOP 585 million, in-line with June's average daily revenue of MOP 579 million. 

“On an ADR basis, we believe July may show some stabilization and improvement month-over month. Assuming ADR of MOP 580 - 600 million for the remainder of this month, we estimate July GGR to be MOP 18.2 - 18.4 billion, representing a y/y decline of 35% - 36%.”

Berstein says Melco Crown and Wynn Macau gained the most market share at the expense of SJM. Melco Crown is at its highest market share since January 2014. 

“With the near-term headwinds, we believe casino operators with operational and marketing acumen are in more favorable positions to grab share. In the upcoming cycle, we expect the differentiated supply coming online in Cotai will drive incremental demand for the entire market.”

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