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Macau table-only GGR down 43 percent from April 1-12

Macau table-only gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP6.9 billion ($0.87 billion) from April 1 to April 12 including slot assumptions, down 43 percent year on year, according to Sterne Agee.

The research house’s April GGR forecast range is now negative 38 percent and negative 43 percent  from earlier estimates of negative 34 percent and negative 39 percent. 

“We anticipate slight GGR improvements from recent April trends ahead of a slowdown at the end of the month heading into China’s Labor Day Holiday beginning May 1,” analyst David Bain wrote in a note.

Commenting on a report by local media that said the Macau Government is proposing to the Mainland a limit of 21 million visitors to Macau from Mainland China to preserve the quality of life of it residents, Bain said the issue is concerning.

“Recent Macau government comments related to Individual Visa Scheme visitation caps are not a new issue (heightened profile in early February of this year and it has been raised by the Macau Government in years past with no action taken). Still, it is concerning.”

Visitation to Mainland China to Macau was 21.3 million in 2014 and Bain forecasts Mainlander visitation to grow to over 23 million in 2015.

“We note a key Macau contact with political insight suggests that comments regarding limiting visitation growth acts as a lever to address the Mainland for additional (much needed/desired) land allowance to Macau for resident housing, etc.”

The note says that April GGR is expected to end at negative 35 percent. 

“While a -35% year-over-year result may be optically unexciting (or unhelpful), we continue to note that February’s YoY result of -50% YoY marked the markets growth bottom, in our view.”


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