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UPDATE: Macau GGR drops 38.8 percent in April

Macau’s casino industry generated MOP19.16 billion ($2.4 billion) in gross gaming revenue in April, down 38.8 percent compared to the same period the year before, according to official figures.

The data, released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, is slightly more positive than the previous month’s which saw GGR fall 39.4 percent. February was the worst month of the year for the industry as GGR plummeted 48.6 percent.

According to the bureau, accumulated gross gaming revenue for the first four months of 2015 was MOP83.9 billion, 37.1 percent lower than the same period in 2014.

The latest GGR figures mean that Macau’s revenue has declined for 11 straight months now, largely driven China’s anti-graft campaign to root out corruption and lavish spending among officials. 

Sterne Agee analyst David Bain said the results are in line with estimates and, compared to other months, is “less bad.”

“Results compare to our growth forecast range of between -38% and -43% YoY. Although optically unattractive on its face, April GGR growth finishes on the higher-end of recent consensus ranges and marks the second consecutive month of “less bad” growth.”

Bain says May growth should be better once Galaxy Macau expands, boosting GGR beyond expectations.

“May 27 marks the opening of the Galaxy Macau expansion, which could modestly boost market GGR beyond our May forecast. Galaxy’s $2.6 billion expansion adds ~1,600 rooms to Cotai’s current 12,800 base (+12%).”

“We anticipate May GGR growth will continue the “less bad” growth trend, ending between -33% and -38% YoY. We continue to anticipate positive YoY Macau GGR growth in 4Q15.”


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