Correction: Sterne Agee revises down CY15 GGR decline to 32 percent

Sterne Agee has revised down its estimate for Macau’s gross gaming revenue growth for 2015 from negative 29 percent to negative 32 percent. 

While Sterne Agee forecasts September GGR growth to end down 29 percent to 35 percent YoY, the research house forecasts October GGR to end at negative 25 percent YoY, November to end at negative 21 percent and December to improve to negative 8 percent.

“In essence, somewhat significant YoY GGR growth improvements are near-term. Our estimates utilize MoM historical averages – a trend we have seen migrating back to in terms of results. However, we are not calling for a structural or cyclical inflection at this time.”

Sterne Agee said that Macau Studio City will have a deeper impact on the market than Galaxy’s Phase II given it is a full new property with far more patron draws and “wow” factors. 

“However, we note Macau Studio City may be going into a fun fight without a gun depending on final table allocations from the Macau Government.”

Sterne Agee added that its CY16 GGR estimate moves to positive growth of 13 percent from 15 percent. 

Correction: a previous version of this story incorrectly stated Sterne Agee revised its GGR estimate upwards to 29 percent.

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