Macau GGR down 28.4 percent in October

Gaming revenue in Macau fell 28.4 percent in October to MOP20 billion, the smallest decline since January this year, according to official data.

October is the first month since January 2015 in which the year-over-year decline rate is under 30 percent, figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau show.

October’s data takes the accumulated GGR decline for the first 10 months of the year to 35.5 percent.

“Although not as good a result as the market may have anticipated following a relatively good Golden Week in early October, the figure can be viewed as the beginning of a "less bad environment", said Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky.

The implied average daily revenue for last week, from October 26 to October 30, is MOP576 million, slightly below the previous week's ADR of MOP586 million, Umansky says.

On Tuesday, October 27, Melco Crown’s Hollywood-themed Studio City opened to great fanfare. 

“We expect ADR (Mass) to begin rising on the marketing push by Studio City.”

Market share of table games up to October 25 saw Sands and Galaxy gain the most market share on better Mass business. SJM share declined 1.9 percentage points month on month as mass customers in particular shift play to Cotai. 

MGM and Wynn both lost share MoM from “abnormally high September levels (especially MGM), but both operators suffered as more patrons visited Cotai over the Peninsula,” said Bernstein, adding that the key over the next few months will be for GGR to continue to rise, especially in light of Studio City's opening. GGR daily rates averaging below MOP600 million will be perceived as negative by investors.

“We currently expect November GGR to be in the -22.5% to -25% y/y range.”

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