Based on checks through September 6, Wells Fargo estimates Macau gaming revenue to decline 30 percent to 36 percent in September compared with a prior estimate of around negative 36 year-on-year.
WF checks through the first six days of September suggest average daily rate was MOP683 million versus August's ADR of MOP601 million.
“We believe the new Victory Day holiday weekend likely had a positive impact on numbers, which we view as transitory. Furthermore, with only six days of checks under our belt, we would not extrapolate last week's results to the remainder of the month--especially given recent variability in the weekly data.”
WF expects declines of 30 percent to 36 percent for September, assuming roughly MOP570 million to MOP590 million for the month, “slightly higher than historical seasonality of down 5% m/m on average to account for the new Victory Day holiday.”
“We note that weekly numbers have been noticeably volatile since early June and expect this pattern to continue given inherent instability in the VIP segment.”
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