Macau looks poised to benefit from Golden Week next month following volatile weekly trends that have seen VIP business now operating from a much lower base, according to Wells Fargo.
Analyst Cameron McKnight wrote in a note that VIP volumes were down last weekend, but have subsequently returned to more normal levels during the week.
“In general, weekly trends have been noticeably volatile with VIP business now operating from a much lower base. We expect a decline of -29% to -33% yr/yr for September.”
Meanwhile with China’s Golden Week holiday beginning October 2 to 7, “our sense is that junkets are incrementally more hopeful heading into October.”
Cameron added that a September room survey suggests an 18 percent month on month decline in rates, implying mass volumes could soften this month.
“We recently began surveying weekly hotel room rates in Macau, similar to our proprietary (and historically accurate) Las Vegas room survey. Our latest survey results suggest that Macau room rates are tracking down -18% mo/mo in September, which is a slight improvement versus last week’s -19% estimate. We think September’s decline likely reflects softer mass volume trends ahead of China’s October Golden Week holiday.”
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