Bernstein lowers June GGR estimates on low VIP hold

Analysts from Bernstein have lowered their June GGR estimates for Macau, due mainly to low VIP hold month to date. According to the brokerage’s channel checks, Macau GGR from June 1-16 is MOP11.8 billion, with a MTD ADR of MOP737 million, down 2 percent compared to June 2018. For the week of June 10 -16, VIP volume was down mid-single digits, and mass GGR is also estimated to be down low single digits month-on-month. The company has lowered its GGR estimated growth for the month of June to 1-3 percent year-on-year growth, as opposed to 3-5 percent growth it was expecting earlier in the month. Looking ahead, Bernstein says it expects year-on-year comparisons to begin easing into July. “Recall GGR was quite robust in early 2018 until US-China trade tensions heightened beginning last summer.” “Also, we may see the surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds (although not expecting a near term rebound),” it added.