China outbound tourism to double by 2020; CLSA

Tuesday 19th of January 2016

Outbound mainland tourist numbers will reach 200 million, double the numbers in 2013, and tourist spend will triple by 2020, according to a survey from Asia-based independent brokerage, CLSA.

According to the investment group, the combination of a number of factors will influence outflow of mainland tourism, including US $8,000 per-capita GDP, as well as more annual leave, visa relaxation, worsening pollution on the mainland, and increasingly overloaded domestic tourism infrastructure.

Aaron Fischer, Head of Consumer and Gaming research said: “Explosive projected growth in outbound Greater China travel numbers offers immense opportunity for countries to benefit from Chinese tourists’ desire for new experiences - from sightseeing to food, to hotels, to gaming and shopping. Tourists will become increasingly savvy, independent and demand high quality experiences and service.”

Hong Kong and Macau will continue to benefit most from Chinese visitation, however, will decline from 62 percent to 45 percent as tourists seek more exotic locations.

The USA and France were fan favorites of the Chinese tourists, receiving 1.5 and 1.3 million mainland Chinese visitors respectively in 2012. CLSA expects travel numbers get to 5.7 million to the US and 3.9 million to France by 2020.

However, Asian countries will continue to benefit most overall, given the proximity to the mainland. In order of preference, survey respondents said Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore were their top destinations in the next three years.

“The doubling of Chinese tourist numbers by 2020 will have a significant impact on airlines, gaming, luxury goods, medical tourism, hotels, property and cruise ships, particularly as travel habits evolve.”