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Macau GGR remains headed for 2-4 pct growth in May: Bernstein

Analysts at Bernstein have reaffirmed their Macau GGR forecast for the month of May at 2-4 percent growth, year-on-year.

The estimates follow a steady month-to-date ADR of MOP876 million, which is around 7 percent over May 2018.

Looking at results last week, Bernstein said ADR over the last six days was helped by a higher VIP hold rate. Mass GGR is estimated to be up high single digits, while VIP volume is up low double digits.

Bernstein said it estimates GGR growth to range from +2 to +4 percent year-on-year in the month of May.

“Heading into the second half of May/ June, we expect y/y comparison to begin easing. Recall GGR was quite robust in early 2018 until US-China trade tensions heightened beginning last summer. Also, we may see the surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds,” said the brokerage.

In its note, Bernstein also highlighted an area of potential high-end GGR stabilization, that is, a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in the second half of the year.

“The recent heightened tension in U.S.-China trade relations, however, casts uncertainty over the GGR recovery. If trade war sustains over an extended period, it will likely pose as a headwind to China's economy and gaming spend from China's high net worth individuals in Macau,” it added.

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