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Only mass has long-term potential: Bernstein

While VIP will continue to show strength in the next few months, in the longer run the high-roller segment will face structural headwinds from a tightening regulatory environment and a continued focus on capital outflows in China, said Bernstein in a Monday note.

Instead, improvements in transportation and the continued opening and ramping up of new casinos will drive the mass market through the rest of the decade, says the brokerage.

“While VIP shall never likely return to its historical glory, Mass has long-term growth potential that can continue with the growth in supply that is coming to Cotai,” said Bernstein.

The brokerage forecasts that mass will have a 2016-2020E CAGR of 11 percent, while the VIP segment, primarily driven by a strong Chinese economy, Chinese liquidity and capital outflows and a moderating anti-corruption campaign, will experience a 2016-2020E CAGR of approximately 4 percent, it wrote.

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