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UBS revises down Singapore GGR estimates for 2015 amid weak VIP

UBS has revised down its gross gaming revenue estimates for Singapore, expecting GGR to drop 11 percent year-on-year compared with 5 percent, due to weaker VIP trends.

In a note, UBS analyst Robin Farley said the Singapore VIP gaming market is expected to decline 26 percent in 2015 compared with expectations of a 16 percent decline. Mass revenue is tipped to grow 3 percent YoY, versus 5 percent.

“We believe Q2'15 marked a trough in Singapore GGR, recording lowest quarterly revs since Q4'12.”

Overall lower Singapore gross gaming revenues bode negatively for Las Vegas Sands, but with stronger presence in mass, UBS expects LVS to have 56 to 57 percent market share in Singapore this year and next compared with previous estimates of 51 percent share in both 2015 and 2016.

With the Singapore dollar depreciating further, down 11 percent in 15Q3 YoY, UBS estimates 2015 EBITDA of $1.497 billion for Marina Bay Sands, down from $1.513 billion previously, and 2016 EBITDA of $1.464 billion, down from $1.505 billion previously estimated.


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