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UBS sees 5 percent drop in 2015 GGR as trends remain uncertain

UBS said it expects Macau gross gambling revenue to fall by 5 percent in 2015, with VIP revenue likely to drop 11 percent, partially offset by a 4 percent gain in mass demand.

The firm cited Melco Crown as saying at a conference in Shanghai that near-term revenue trends remain uncertain.

It said the initial slowdown in VIP revenue in April was caused by a liquidity shock in the junket system, but the subsequent slowdown was more due to reduced end demand rather than liquidity problems with junkets.

The recovery will therefore depend on a change in consumer sentiment, which in turn is dependent on macro events in China and remains “highly unpredictable,” UBS said. 


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