Macau table-only gross gaming revenue, including slot assumptions, was MOP15.6 billion ($2bn) from May 1 to May 25, indicating a drop of 38 percent year-over-year, Sterne Agee said in a note.
Analyst David Bain said Sterne Agee’s May GGR growth forecast range of between negative 33 percent and negative 38 percent YoY remains unchanged, adding that Galaxy’s upcoming expansion should boost the May results.
“Week-over-week trends showed an 8% increase ahead of the Galaxy expansion opening tomorrow, May 27. Galaxy's opening week should boost May's final monthly growth result.”
“May 27 marks the opening of the Galaxy Macau expansion, which could modestly boost market GGR beyond our May forecast.”
Galaxy’s $2.6 billion expansion will add 1,600 rooms to Cotai’s current 12,800 base. Hotel brands include the Ritz Carlton with 250 rooms, JD Marriot with 1,000 rooms and a Broadway Hotel with 320 rooms.
“While Galaxy’s new opening has capacity for ~500 table games, the Macau Government recently granted permission for it to host ~150 new tables. Galaxy will likely rebalance from existing properties to its Phase II make up for the allocated shortfall from the Macau Government.”
Bain added that the government allocation of 150 gaming tables for Galaxy Macau’s $2.5 billion Phase II is a “negative indicator” for other slated openings.
“Macau stock reaction has been muted given Galaxy’s table allocation was expected, but property openings at table levels lower than 400 puts consensus estimates at risk and has operators concerned. Increasingly opaque and counterproductive Macau Government policy toward table allocations and its “md-term” review of the gaming industry reset our Macau property target multiples lower.”
According to Sterne Agee’s checks, month-to-date table-only market share results for May 1 to 25 are: SJM at 23.1 percent, Galaxy at 18.2 percent, LVS at 27.1 percent, MPEL at 14.0 percent, WYNN at 9.1 percent, and MGM at 8.5 percent.
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